New data from NASA, published on Tuesday, indicates a 3.1% probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, making it the most significant risk at this moment. Despite the increasing chances, experts advise caution rather than panic. Richard Moisle from the European Space Agency (ESA) calls it a "historic" event but emphasizes that it is "not a crisis."
If the probability exceeds 10%, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) issues official readiness recommendations. Nevertheless, experts are confident that NASA's DART mission and other deflection strategies could change the asteroid's trajectory if necessary. At this moment, astronomers continue monitoring, and observations from the James Webb Space Telescope in March are expected to provide a clearer understanding of the real risk.
Key facts about 2024 YR4: the asteroid was discovered on December 27, 2024, in Chile, its size is estimated at 40–90 meters in width, current collision probability is 3.1% (1 in 32), potential impact zone encompasses the Eastern Pacific Ocean, South America, the Atlantic, Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, and if a collision occurs, the energy of the impact would be equivalent to eight megatons of TNT (approximately 500 times more than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima).
Experts note that while 2024 YR4 is classified as "potentially hazardous," this is not a global threat similar to that which exterminated the dinosaurs.
