The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has reported that the probability of impact of asteroid 2024 YR4 against Earth on December 22, 2032, has further decreased, reaching 0.28 percent according to the most recent calculations published today. NASA's planetary defense teams will continue to closely monitor the asteroid with the aim of improving predictions about its trajectory.
On the other hand, with this new data, it has been observed that the probability of an impact against the Moon has slightly increased to one percent, according to the space agency. The asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in size and was first detected on January 27, 2024, by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS), which is funded by NASA and located in Chile.
Regarding the potential damage that could be caused by the impact, NASA indicates that it will largely depend on the exact size and composition of the asteroid, data that is still not known with certainty. However, due to the size range of 2024 YR4, it is considered most likely that an airburst would occur in the event of impact.
In the event that the asteroid entered the atmosphere over the ocean, models indicate that the air explosion of an object of this size is unlikely to generate a significant tsunami, either offshore or near the coast, as explained by NASA.
