Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been detected by NASA's Near-Earth Object Studies Center, which has identified a possible impact corridor extending through several populated areas. Although the chance of impact on Earth is 1.6%, astronomers continue to monitor its trajectory to improve the accuracy of measurements and assess the risk more precisely.
With an estimated diameter between 40 and 90 meters, asteroid 2024 YR4 captures the interest of the astronomical and planetary defense community. Classified as level 3 on the Torino scale, its probability of impact has risen to 3%, the highest recorded for an asteroid of that size. Despite the potential for significant damage in the event of an impact with a populated area, the odds of it colliding with Earth remain low, with a 98% chance of passing by.
The asteroid tops the list of potentially dangerous bodies, according to the ESA's Near-Earth Object Coordination Center. As more data is collected, ESA coordinates observations with increasingly powerful telescopes to determine the asteroid's trajectory with greater precision. Two specialized United Nations groups closely monitor the trajectory and evolution of this space body.
Although the likelihood of impact has been calculated at 2.3% by ESA and 2.27% by NASA, both institutions indicate that it is very likely the asteroid will simply pass by without posing a threat. Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been observed from the ATLAS observatory in Chile, and it is expected to begin fading from view from Earth in the coming months, thereby eliminating the threat of impact. Despite the probability estimates, continuous monitoring will be conducted to study its trajectory and evolution.
